0x6e1eab5b0e33348574f2e25d0ca47ec1489098fc
0x6e1eab5b0e33348574f2e25d0ca47ec1489098fc
- Realised P&L
- $4.09
- Volume
- $185.33
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $6.44
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration47.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)57.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.395 | $2.82 | −$0.18 |
| Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.370 | $2.58 | −$0.42 |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate? · Yes | 0.318 | 0.274 | $1.03 | −$0.17 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.30 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · No | 0.302 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.39at 0.333Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs
- +$5.66at 0.459Valorant: NRG vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs
- +$3.12at 0.522Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?
- +$1.69at 0.561US imports Russian diesel by October 31?
- +$-3.80at 0.065Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 01:14 | US imports Russian diesel by October 31? | SELL | 0.965 | $4.46 |
| 10-16 08:25 | Valorant: Team Vitality vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs | BUY | 0.6199998946 | $2.00 |
| 10-12 10:37 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.3019999798 | $4.00 |
| 10-12 00:37 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.299999986 | $4.30 |
| 10-12 00:17 | Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999498 | $3.00 |
| 10-12 00:16 | Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4199999496 | $3.00 |
| 10-11 23:54 | Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate? | BUY | 0.3179999921 | $1.20 |
| 10-11 23:50 | US imports Russian diesel by October 31? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $2.50 |
| 10-11 23:44 | Valorant: Team Vitality vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs | BUY | 0.439999977 | $2.30 |
| 10-10 13:02 | Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.4899999433 | $3.20 |
| 10-10 12:16 | Valorant: G2 Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs | BUY | 0.4099999828 | $6.90 |
| 10-09 12:04 | Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs | BUY | 0.0599999993 | $3.50 |
| 10-09 12:02 | Valorant: NRG vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs | BUY | 0.4299999704 | $4.50 |
| 10-09 11:49 | Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs | SELL | 0.999 | $14.98 |
| 10-09 09:08 | Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs | BUY | 0.31 | $4.65 |