0x6d1f63af3a9ffa21e4312a398454a5240e0f6aa0
- Realised P&L
- $2.74
- Volume
- $254.62
- Markets traded
- 61
- Open portfolio
- $8.49
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded61
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.985 | $2.59 | +$0.59 |
| Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $328 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.500 | $2.27 | +$0.27 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No | 0.780 | 0.982 | $1.99 | +$0.41 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.725 | $1.64 | −$0.17 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? · No | 0.730 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.26at 0.249Will the Bank of Israel cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?
- +$4.18at 0.331Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July?
- +$3.88at 0.340Will fewer than 180 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9?
- +$3.83at 0.349Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?
- +$3.50at 0.369Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of August 10 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 05:37 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999848 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 20:23 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299997409 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 11:44 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on September 17? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 03:37 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $328 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.439999956 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 15:33 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.81 |
| 09-11 14:59 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $2.00 |
| 09-11 06:00 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $335 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.00 |
| 09-10 21:47 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.00 |
| 09-10 01:45 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 10? | BUY | 0.419999979 | $2.00 |
| 09-08 17:40 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in August? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $2.00 |
| 09-08 08:27 | LAPTOP airdrop by September 9? | BUY | 0.8199999836 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 23:18 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 13:17 | Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $2.00 |
| 09-03 21:47 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.17 |
| 09-03 07:52 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5199999896 | $2.00 |