tonyboy108
0x6d1bb3eccaf954322b02a3a87e6f0f0745d51bec
- Realised P&L
- $539.92
- Volume
- $109.3k
- Markets traded
- 197
- Open portfolio
- $7.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded197
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$59.80at 0.968Will Club Tijuana win on 2026-08-16?
- +$49.91at 0.998Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
- +$42.33at 0.990Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$22.72at 0.998Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
- +$16.51at 0.933Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 05:16 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.999 | $216.78 |
| 10-15 05:16 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.998 | $20.96 |
| 10-15 05:15 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.997 | $59.62 |
| 10-15 05:15 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.99 | $268.45 |
| 10-15 05:15 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.999 | $163.58 |
| 10-15 05:15 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.997 | $31.96 |
| 10-15 05:15 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.996 | $5.86 |
| 10-15 05:15 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.99 | $9.90 |
| 10-15 05:15 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.989 | $9.89 |
| 10-15 05:14 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.999 | $54.95 |
| 10-14 07:50 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 14? | BUY | 0.999 | $841.16 |
| 10-13 06:52 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 13? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.99 |
| 10-13 06:52 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on October 13? | BUY | 0.999 | $732.99 |
| 10-13 06:52 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on October 13? | BUY | 0.999 | $0.61 |
| 10-13 06:52 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on October 13? | BUY | 0.998 | $95.50 |