liamweber
0x6cfce245330b7935bb415bd32ebbf8ee3059a5c2
- Realised P&L
- $2.7k
- Volume
- $2.72M
- Markets traded
- 1,224
- Open portfolio
- $10.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,224
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration15.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? · No | 0.993 | 0.997 | $4.0k | +$14.20 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $135 in September? · No | 0.982 | 0.997 | $2.0k | +$30.43 |
| Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? · No | 0.986 | 0.985 | $1.8k | −$2.93 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in September? · No | 0.998 | 0.999 | $1.1k | +$0.54 |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? · No | 0.886 | 0.895 | $965.56 | +$9.55 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in September? · No | 0.997 | 0.999 | $695.30 | +$1.05 |
| Will AJ Dybantsa win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.200 | $12.00 | +$2.40 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in September? · No | 0.987 | 0.995 | $9.96 | +$0.07 |
| Will Darryn Peterson win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.165 | $9.90 | +$0.30 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · No | 0.390 | 0.034 | $2.35 | −$24.92 |
| Will XRP reach $3.00 in September? · No | 0.990 | 0.992 | $2.00 | +$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$597.20at 0.800No airdrop in 2025?
- +$352.98at 0.179Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)?
- +$271.63at 0.997Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30?
- +$227.89at 0.516Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded this season?
- +$119.34at 0.998Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 13:08 | Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in September? | SELL | 0.984 | $188.60 |
| 09-24 10:44 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | BUY | 0.997 | $97.39 |
| 09-24 10:44 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | BUY | 0.996 | $2.3k |
| 09-22 11:57 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in September? | BUY | 0.997 | $1.0k |
| 09-21 20:20 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.36 | $171.81 |
| 09-21 19:56 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.4 | $9.10 |
| 09-20 17:53 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25? | SELL | 0.11 | $55.00 |
| 09-20 16:54 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.5 | $104.76 |
| 09-20 16:39 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? | SELL | 0.962 | $73.83 |
| 09-20 15:40 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | BUY | 0.987 | $57.11 |
| 09-17 14:16 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September? | BUY | 0.993 | $1.1k |
| 09-15 07:25 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | BUY | 0.98 | $245.00 |
| 09-14 20:51 | NBA: Will Anthony Davis be traded by next season? | SELL | 0.053 | $8.97 |
| 09-11 17:03 | Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? | SELL | 0.9341870101 | $1.3k |
| 09-10 08:26 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in September? | BUY | 0.988 | $414.96 |