liamweber
0x6cfce245330b7935bb415bd32ebbf8ee3059a5c2
- Realised P&L
- $1.9k
- Volume
- $2.26M
- Markets traded
- 1,175
- Open portfolio
- $3.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,175
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration39.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? · No | 0.991 | 0.988 | $2.0k | −$7.00 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.987 | 0.987 | $986.50 | −$0.50 |
| Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.972 | 0.986 | $63.78 | +$0.87 |
| Will AJ Dybantsa win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.205 | $12.30 | +$2.70 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · No | 0.390 | 0.113 | $7.88 | −$19.39 |
| NBA: Will Anthony Davis be traded by next season? · Yes | 0.132 | 0.040 | $5.00 | −$11.50 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.207 | $2.07 | −$0.43 |
| Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? · Yes | 0.185 | 0.006 | $0.32 | −$9.64 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$597.20at 0.800No airdrop in 2025?
- +$352.98at 0.179Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)?
- +$271.75at 0.997Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30?
- +$227.89at 0.516Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded this season?
- +$119.34at 0.998Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-30 17:05 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.0k |
| 07-30 11:10 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.0k |
| 07-29 08:10 | Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid? | SELL | 0.21 | $8.40 |
| 07-28 15:53 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July? | BUY | 0.991 | $232.67 |
| 07-28 12:04 | Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in July? | SELL | 0.999 | $2.3k |
| 07-26 07:48 | Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in July? | BUY | 0.998 | $2.3k |
| 07-25 21:18 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December? | SELL | 0.975 | $15.20 |
| 07-25 10:05 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July? | BUY | 0.995 | $1.3k |
| 07-24 23:14 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July? | BUY | 0.988 | $98.80 |
| 07-24 17:47 | Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27? | SELL | 0.997 | $19.92 |
| 07-24 13:32 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July? | SELL | 0.992 | $5.95 |
| 07-21 17:31 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July? | BUY | 0.99 | $426.64 |
| 07-17 06:16 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July? | BUY | 0.99 | $31.66 |
| 07-16 10:53 | World Cup Goal Contributions H2H: Vitinha vs. Pedri | SELL | 0.54 | $5.40 |
| 07-15 23:12 | Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27? | SELL | 0.137 | $1.37 |