0x6C5773e334ec895B61C3982E5078dBd7f7950D5B-1768128808247
0x6c5773e334ec895b61c3982e5078dbd7f7950d5b
- Realised P&L
- $-76.30
- Volume
- $2.8k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $22.31
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration49.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)57.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? · Yes | 0.086 | 0.043 | $10.08 | −$9.92 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.065 | 0.042 | $4.20 | −$2.30 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.019 | $2.71 | −$2.29 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.039 | $1.85 | −$1.95 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · Yes | 0.085 | 0.028 | $1.37 | −$2.87 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.025 | 0.013 | $1.09 | −$1.01 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.065 | $1.01 | −$5.35 |
| Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.70 |
| Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? · Yes | 0.013 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.03 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.059 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.06 |
| Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.00 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.82at 0.330Iran strike on US military by February 28?
- +$8.28at 0.029Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- +$3.33at 0.205Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?
- +$1.38at 0.021Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?
- +$0.86at 0.070US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-04 11:36 | Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.025 | $2.09 |
| 07-04 11:31 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.059 | $1.06 |
| 05-14 16:10 | Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? | BUY | 0.017 | $1.02 |
| 05-13 14:11 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.065 | $6.50 |
| 05-13 14:02 | Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? | SELL | 0.343925 | $8.25 |
| 05-13 13:59 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.07 | $3.50 |
| 05-13 13:55 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.085 | $4.25 |
| 05-03 06:29 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | SELL | 0.928 | $1.48 |
| 02-21 11:03 | Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.1323104628 | $5.63 |
| 02-20 16:07 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | BUY | 0.0359999933 | $5.00 |
| 01-30 12:51 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.4099999652 | $6.36 |
| 01-30 11:34 | US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.054 | $3.24 |
| 01-30 08:02 | US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0496371667 | $2.98 |
| 01-29 16:37 | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | SELL | 0.4 | $10.77 |
| 01-24 20:45 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | BUY | 0.8799999749 | $1.40 |