0x6c1fb68a250c75dcb321c56e1f21891d330787fc
- Realised P&L
- $63.6k
- Volume
- $1.80M
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $2.6k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)10.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration79.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.275 | $2.1k | +$566.07 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.145 | $485.77 | +$50.26 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026 · Yes | 0.050 | 0.060 | $42.55 | +$7.09 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$129.8kat 0.172Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$-13.93at 0.414Will Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw?
- +$-106.33at 0.021Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15?
- +$-422.51at 0.128Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15?
- +$-501.60at 0.033Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 14:50 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.5k |
| 09-17 14:49 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $45.37 |
| 09-17 14:49 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026 | BUY | 0.05 | $5.00 |
| 09-17 14:43 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026 | BUY | 0.05 | $10.00 |
| 09-12 15:04 | Will Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? | BUY | 0.4 | $13.46 |
| 07-19 22:01 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.0032005457 | $338.26 |
| 07-19 21:59 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.0571313428 | $1.0k |
| 07-19 21:59 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.0577547229 | $981.83 |
| 07-19 21:58 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.0574526163 | $919.24 |
| 07-14 20:51 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.002 | $28.56 |
| 07-14 20:50 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.005 | $80.00 |
| 07-14 20:49 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.006 | $96.00 |
| 07-14 20:48 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.014 | $224.00 |
| 07-14 20:46 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.0180037494 | $288.06 |
| 07-14 20:43 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.0168963688 | $270.34 |