0x6c1fb68a250c75dcb321c56e1f21891d330787fc
0x6c1fb68a250c75dcb321c56e1f21891d330787fc
- Realised P&L
- $58.0k
- Volume
- $1.83M
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $1.2k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)8.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.268 | 0.036 | $1.2k | −$8.0k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$129.8kat 0.172Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$-10.17at 0.051Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026
- +$-13.93at 0.414Will Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw?
- +$-106.33at 0.021Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15?
- +$-122.18at 0.131Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-17 00:37 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0068477207 | $8.60 |
| 09-21 11:21 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1492668948 | $93.76 |
| 09-21 11:21 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1501568097 | $94.32 |
| 09-21 11:20 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1579290294 | $132.27 |
| 09-21 11:19 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026 | SELL | 0.0383042657 | $27.16 |
| 09-19 13:35 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999997 | $29.59 |
| 09-18 23:03 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2899999989 | $24.00 |
| 09-18 23:02 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $2.3k |
| 09-18 23:01 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.29 | $84.43 |
| 09-18 23:00 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.29 | $2.4k |
| 09-18 22:32 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.28 | $72.26 |
| 09-18 22:21 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999999 | $300.00 |
| 09-18 22:00 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.28 | $350.00 |
| 09-18 21:54 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999999 | $330.00 |
| 09-18 21:54 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999999 | $330.00 |