0x6c155a5ec825ad7641c51c661a6658e8d7a758f6
0x6c155a5ec825ad7641c51c661a6658e8d7a758f6
- Realised P&L
- $17.98
- Volume
- $644.23
- Markets traded
- 188
- Open portfolio
- $6.13
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded188
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? · No | 0.590 | 0.775 | $2.63 | +$0.63 |
| Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 10% to 12.5%? · No | 0.640 | 0.905 | $1.41 | +$0.41 |
| Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.600 | $1.11 | +$0.11 |
| Netflix (NFLX) Q3 operating margin 32% to 34%? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.665 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of October 19 2026? · No | 0.460 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.69at 0.237Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?
- +$5.89at 0.260Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?
- +$4.61at 0.308SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 11?
- +$4.38at 0.321Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$3.66at 0.359Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $174 Week of September 7 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 11:13 | Netflix (NFLX) Q3 operating margin 32% to 34%? | BUY | 0.6799996464 | $1.00 |
| 10-20 03:13 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of October 19 2026? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 06:53 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 22:03 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 12:15 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 04:12 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.2447496908 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 18:29 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 10:26 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 10% to 12.5%? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 02:25 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 18:23 | Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 22:04 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 13:41 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.4399998592 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 05:21 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 19:25 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 11:20 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |