polyweatheryuan
0x6bf633e483ed85b5a73c5a387bdffdd100772529
- Realised P&L
- $1.5k
- Volume
- $194.8k
- Markets traded
- 3,769
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded3,769
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration37.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration17.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$363.70at 0.322Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on May 29?
- +$318.38at 0.151Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on May 1?
- +$224.79at 0.066Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on May 10?
- +$184.47at 0.099Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 2?
- +$181.45at 0.348Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on August 6?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-07 02:09 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.3407692308 | $8.86 |
| 08-07 00:55 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.0212058351 | $2.25 |
| 08-07 00:53 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.96 | $43.01 |
| 08-07 00:49 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.03 | $9.37 |
| 08-07 00:16 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.8855223881 | $29.67 |
| 08-07 00:08 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.85 | $32.30 |
| 08-06 22:48 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.0726281588 | $4.02 |
| 08-06 22:47 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or higher on August 7? | BUY | 0.0397328699 | $16.00 |
| 08-06 11:55 | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.78 | $3.90 |
| 08-06 10:09 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 6? | SELL | 0.9951790621 | $126.05 |
| 08-06 08:01 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.74 | $5.92 |
| 08-06 07:59 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.9683125649 | $55.95 |
| 08-06 07:59 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.9670398773 | $37.83 |
| 08-06 07:02 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 6? | SELL | 0.475 | $4.75 |
| 08-06 06:50 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.9640132325 | $5.10 |