PolyBot

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polyweatheryuan

0x6bf633e483ed85b5a73c5a387bdffdd100772529

Realised P&L
$1.5k
Volume
$194.8k
Markets traded
3,769
Open portfolio
$1.1k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded3,769
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
CautionProfit concentration37.8% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration17.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? · No0.9570.979$195.70+$4.30
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? · No0.9270.929$170.40+$0.40
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? · No0.9630.988$124.69+$3.15
Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No0.9360.957$102.19+$2.19
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? · Yes0.8200.952$71.39+$9.90
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C on August 7? · Yes0.4400.655$65.50+$21.50
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? · Yes0.9630.954$51.39$0.51
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? · No0.9680.992$49.57+$1.17
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · Yes0.3070.145$43.91$49.09
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 7? · No0.6200.355$35.50$26.50
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.8350.875$34.59+$1.59
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 7? · No0.6200.995$23.96+$9.03
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 7? · Yes0.0250.040$16.49+$6.12
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 7? · Yes0.0700.135$13.50+$6.50
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.7650.685$12.54$1.46

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-07 02:09Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 7?BUY0.3407692308$8.86
08-07 00:55Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on August 7?BUY0.0212058351$2.25
08-07 00:53Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 7?BUY0.96$43.01
08-07 00:49Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 7?BUY0.03$9.37
08-07 00:16Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 7?BUY0.8855223881$29.67
08-07 00:08Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 7?BUY0.85$32.30
08-06 22:48Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on August 7?BUY0.0726281588$4.02
08-06 22:47Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or higher on August 7?BUY0.0397328699$16.00
08-06 11:55Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on August 6?BUY0.78$3.90
08-06 10:09Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 6?SELL0.9951790621$126.05
08-06 08:01Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on August 6?BUY0.74$5.92
08-06 07:59Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 6?BUY0.9683125649$55.95
08-06 07:59Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 6?BUY0.9670398773$37.83
08-06 07:02Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 6?SELL0.475$4.75
08-06 06:50Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on August 6?BUY0.9640132325$5.10