0x6bebb820e4a7641bc4bebe94f3b3efb218ba2773
0x6bebb820e4a7641bc4bebe94f3b3efb218ba2773
- Realised P&L
- $153.04
- Volume
- $3.1k
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $63.86
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting? · Yes | 0.234 | 0.265 | $34.00 | +$4.00 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.165 | $19.41 | −$0.59 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.154 | 0.147 | $9.58 | −$0.42 |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? · Yes | 0.029 | 0.003 | $0.87 | −$9.13 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 on October 11? · Yes | 0.031 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$168.99at 0.659Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$-5.22at 0.043Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 18:02 | Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 on October 11? | BUY | 0.0312044123 | $10.00 |
| 10-11 17:58 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.0286271358 | $10.00 |
| 10-06 20:51 | Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting? | BUY | 0.3224892247 | $20.00 |
| 10-05 11:05 | Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting? | BUY | 0.1508893038 | $10.00 |
| 10-05 11:02 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.1539999998 | $10.00 |
| 10-04 22:00 | Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0409999998 | $5.00 |
| 10-04 21:59 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.1699999997 | $20.00 |
| 10-04 21:57 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.835 | $422.64 |
| 10-04 21:56 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.8362397661 | $423.27 |
| 10-04 21:36 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.8542189945 | $93.34 |
| 10-01 19:36 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.6209999992 | $131.64 |
| 10-01 19:35 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.6219999995 | $429.85 |