Yakira2025
0x6bcfeac36a7a11b001d99932f7a2831a9852324e
- Realised P&L
- $36.3k
- Volume
- $1.29M
- Markets traded
- 45
- Open portfolio
- $737.30
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded45
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration85.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample44 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)29.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration71.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.093 | 0.060 | $524.38 | −$293.50 |
| France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.024 | $212.91 | +$32.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$59.1kat 0.330Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$4.4kat 0.599US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
- +$1.2kat 0.140Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
- +$1.0kat 0.783Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?
- +$920.35at 0.662Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 11:46 | France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $32.71 |
| 10-20 11:24 | France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.07 | $105.00 |
| 10-20 10:11 | France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $55.00 |
| 10-20 08:40 | France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $39.00 |
| 10-19 18:21 | France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $6.00 |
| 10-19 17:12 | Curfew in a major French city by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.829 | $24.87 |
| 10-19 13:18 | France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.025 | $10.00 |
| 10-19 13:05 | France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $4.30 |
| 10-19 12:48 | France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $187.00 |
| 10-19 12:41 | France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.02 | $80.00 |
| 10-19 12:41 | France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $57.47 |
| 10-19 12:33 | France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.02 | $20.00 |
| 10-19 12:33 | France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.02 | $20.00 |
| 10-19 12:32 | France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $180.00 |
| 10-19 12:31 | France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $36.00 |