Dropper
0x6bab41a0dc40d6dd4c1a915b8c01969479fd1292
- Realised P&L
- $1.50M
- Volume
- $52.75M
- Markets traded
- 1,717
- Open portfolio
- $326.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,717
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration16.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$209.1kat 0.091Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or below on May 17?
- +$148.7kat 0.335US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$86.7kat 0.044Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?
- +$60.7kat 0.834MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$60.5kat 0.483MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 20:55 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.04 | $431.89 |
| 09-15 18:04 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? | BUY | 0.998 | $17.2k |
| 09-15 18:01 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.83 | $1.1k |
| 09-15 17:57 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? | BUY | 0.9864264394 | $7.9k |
| 09-15 13:39 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.83 | $8.0k |
| 09-14 16:23 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.9697858528 | $13.5k |
| 09-11 18:47 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.2776875258 | $531.12 |
| 09-11 01:53 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.46 | $150.89 |
| 09-09 19:15 | LAPTOP FDV above $350M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.6600028823 | $12.4k |
| 09-09 19:13 | LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.85 | $21.3k |
| 09-08 19:15 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.39 | $715.60 |
| 09-08 19:12 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.5798828439 | $2.9k |
| 09-08 18:49 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.42 | $850.92 |
| 09-05 01:54 | Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET? | BUY | 0.1852353158 | $155.51 |
| 08-28 02:15 | 49ers vs. Raiders | BUY | 0.5 | $5.7k |