0x6b9Ae9f30D4AC0a7dC07C7649C485D7ADBa2B784-1722402746283
0x6b9ae9f30d4ac0a7dc07c7649c485d7adba2b784
- Realised P&L
- $-66.58
- Volume
- $1.1k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $115.11
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration76.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No | 0.891 | 0.961 | $78.16 | +$5.64 |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? · No | 0.860 | 0.922 | $32.18 | +$2.18 |
| Will Ethena reach $0.32 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.200 | $4.77 | −$3.81 |
| AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan · China | 0.094 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$61.62 |
| U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? · No | 0.248 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.62 |
| Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? · Yes | 0.037 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Spread: Germany (-2.5) · Curaçao | 0.277 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.68 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.67at 0.204Will Nicolas Maduro Win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election?
- +$2.09at 0.540Ethereum flipped in 2026?
- +$1.23at 0.440Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?
- +$0.35at 0.938Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-14 17:54 | Spread: Germany (-2.5) | BUY | 0.2099999311 | $1.86 |
| 06-14 17:46 | Spread: Germany (-2.5) | BUY | 0.4099999031 | $1.82 |
| 06-14 17:46 | Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? | BUY | 0.0369999877 | $3.00 |
| 05-05 12:49 | Will Ethena reach $0.32 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999782 | $8.58 |
| 04-29 11:17 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.977 | $8.86 |
| 04-02 18:27 | Ethereum flipped in 2026? | BUY | 0.539999903 | $2.45 |
| 04-02 18:25 | Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? | SELL | 0.981 | $2.23 |
| 03-01 17:44 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.8929999905 | $50.01 |
| 02-28 10:22 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.8879999957 | $20.00 |
| 02-28 10:21 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.8599999903 | $30.00 |
| 01-27 15:58 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.8799998317 | $2.51 |
| 01-27 15:37 | Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? | BUY | 0.4399998064 | $1.00 |
| 01-24 19:09 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9379999522 | $8.51 |
| 01-24 19:01 | U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? | SELL | 0.34 | $8.51 |
| 01-24 16:19 | U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? | BUY | 0.25 | $19.82 |