0x6b940F09054BdCD9dD96e6646C36dC6BcDE558a3-1777560946674
0x6b940f09054bdcd9dd96e6646c36dc6bcde558a3
- Realised P&L
- $-65.16
- Volume
- $728.07
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $19.62
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GitHub Git Operations critical incident by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.240 | $8.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.355 | $7.10 | −$2.90 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.042 | $2.59 | −$2.41 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.208 | 0.201 | $1.93 | −$0.07 |
| Will Claude go down 3-5 times in May? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will Claude go down 6-8 times in May? · Yes | 0.082 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · No | 0.788 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.174 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on July 14? · Yes | 0.770 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? · No | 0.462 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.07at 0.590Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?
- +$4.73at 0.734Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET
- +$3.95at 0.793Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$3.27at 0.710Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
- +$2.05at 0.830Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 08:44 | GitHub Git Operations critical incident by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.299999994 | $10.00 |
| 09-20 12:36 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.2079999917 | $2.00 |
| 07-14 08:25 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on July 14? | BUY | 0.7699999954 | $15.00 |
| 07-14 08:16 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.08 | $5.00 |
| 07-14 08:13 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.7879999966 | $15.00 |
| 07-14 08:13 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1739999867 | $10.00 |
| 07-14 08:12 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.7849999992 | $15.00 |
| 06-15 09:41 | Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? | BUY | 0.2199999727 | $5.00 |
| 05-20 07:44 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET | SELL | 0.84 | $22.34 |
| 05-20 07:44 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET | BUY | 0.7199999965 | $25.00 |
| 05-09 07:13 | Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? | BUY | 0.4624277457 | $20.00 |
| 05-08 12:04 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET | BUY | 0.8479999824 | $5.00 |
| 05-08 12:04 | Will Claude go down 12+ times in May? | BUY | 0.5799999861 | $10.00 |
| 05-07 07:58 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET | BUY | 0.05 | $5.00 |
| 05-07 06:44 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? | BUY | 0.8299999967 | $10.00 |