artconscious
0x6b78a3365b91949e9a29b638cd71d1dc133f5542
- Realised P&L
- $-26.13
- Volume
- $8.1k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $25.94
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration85.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.017 | $25.94 | +$13.36 |
| Will AfD win at least 20% of all valid second votes? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$31.00 |
| Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern? · Yes | 0.025 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.96 |
| Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.20 |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$33.51at 0.880Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
- +$3.19at 0.165Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?
- +$2.13at 0.787Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
- +$0.45at 0.015Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027?
- +$0.07at 0.017Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 14:23 | Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? | SELL | 0.82 | $9.36 |
| 09-21 14:22 | Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day? | SELL | 0.05182 | $5.18 |
| 09-21 14:21 | Will AfD win 32-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.15 |
| 09-21 00:25 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.2232032 | $13.95 |
| 09-12 17:17 | Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.009 | $0.94 |
| 09-11 13:46 | Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027? | SELL | 0.0164184195 | $9.38 |
| 09-10 21:52 | Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 20:57 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? | SELL | 0.1519405941 | $15.19 |
| 09-10 20:52 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.022 | $0.33 |
| 09-10 13:16 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $10.00 |
| 09-09 23:34 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.78 | $7.80 |
| 09-09 23:32 | Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.001 | $2.20 |
| 09-09 23:08 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.016 | $0.24 |
| 09-09 22:14 | Will AfD win at least 20% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.31 | $31.00 |
| 09-09 22:00 | Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? | BUY | 0.8756218888 | $10.00 |