anonymousoctopus
0x6b32f2142859030734abaa2a2bec8a423a903535
- Realised P&L
- $-509.44
- Volume
- $26.1k
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $3.3k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration76.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? · Yes | 0.726 | 0.755 | $2.6k | +$97.15 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.076 | 0.040 | $321.17 | −$300.27 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.043 | 0.034 | $235.35 | −$65.29 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.115 | 0.081 | $217.85 | −$94.25 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$990.55at 0.277Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
- +$-1.5kat 0.690Thunder vs. Pacers
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-03 22:21 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.111 | $137.64 |
| 10-03 22:21 | Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.016 | $6.93 |
| 09-12 10:31 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.037 | $2.56 |
| 09-12 10:27 | Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.0713545044 | $123.92 |
| 08-27 00:31 | Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.0839723992 | $41.65 |
| 08-26 09:06 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.055 | $19.25 |
| 08-26 09:05 | Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.087 | $69.60 |
| 08-25 22:53 | Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.0869483969 | $68.34 |
| 08-24 19:53 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.0589247555 | $78.31 |
| 08-23 22:50 | Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.085 | $5.10 |
| 08-22 19:54 | Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? | BUY | 0.73 | $1.6k |
| 08-22 10:51 | Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.088 | $140.80 |
| 08-21 21:15 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.119 | $41.99 |
| 06-18 19:26 | Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? | BUY | 0.2039219043 | $134.00 |
| 06-18 18:58 | Thunder vs. Pacers | BUY | 0.6899999999 | $1.5k |