asegad
0x6af0475bd480ed539d5dd3eead3eb3719876d8cc
- Realised P&L
- $-5.83
- Volume
- $7.7k
- Markets traded
- 93
- Open portfolio
- $12.68
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded93
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration6.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration85.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? · No | 0.999 | 0.999 | $10.79 | −$0.01 |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? · No | 0.750 | 0.745 | $1.89 | −$0.01 |
| Chicago Cubs vs. Boston Red Sox · Chicago Cubs | 0.540 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.62 |
| Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.64 |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the February 2026 meeting? · No | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on February 4? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.16 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.30at 0.997Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?
- +$0.21at 0.998Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 17?
- +$0.21at 0.998Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 1?
- +$0.14at 0.973Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30?
- +$0.11at 0.998Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 13:07 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.80 |
| 10-08 13:00 | Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? | BUY | 0.7499998026 | $1.90 |
| 09-25 09:56 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.70 |
| 09-25 09:54 | Chicago Cubs vs. Boston Red Sox | BUY | 0.54 | $1.62 |
| 08-06 09:32 | Will Vinicius Junior join Paris Saint-Germain? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.30 |
| 07-30 06:57 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.29 |
| 06-09 12:35 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? | BUY | 0.999 | $99.00 |
| 06-05 11:47 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? | BUY | 0.9989999909 | $99.00 |
| 05-25 11:31 | Will Elon Musk post 700-719 tweets in May 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $99.00 |
| 05-21 09:31 | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20? | BUY | 0.9989999908 | $98.00 |
| 05-15 09:17 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $98.00 |
| 05-09 13:00 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? | BUY | 0.999 | $98.00 |
| 05-06 07:23 | Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $98.00 |
| 04-19 09:30 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 19? | BUY | 0.999 | $97.99 |
| 04-16 09:48 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on April 16? | BUY | 0.9989999908 | $97.99 |