LeahHall1216
0x6a88784dd4705733d024bc0c32f32eb68654513e
- Realised P&L
- $-300.75
- Volume
- $134.5k
- Markets traded
- 173
- Open portfolio
- $73.36
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded173
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration94.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timothy Chalamet confirmed to be EsDeeKid by June 30? · No | 0.976 | 1.000 | $69.00 | +$1.66 |
| Over $1B raised on Coinbase in 2026? · No | 0.490 | 0.890 | $3.56 | +$1.60 |
| Will Daylight launch a token by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.012 | $0.42 | −$17.78 |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.037 | $0.30 | −$2.10 |
| Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.053 | $0.05 | −$0.81 |
| 1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.015 | $0.03 | −$0.01 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.62 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$398.71at 0.102Will Albin Kurti be the next Prime Minister of Kosovo?
- +$303.84at 0.520Querétaro FC vs. FC Juárez: O/U 1.5
- +$151.14at 0.420Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by end of January?
- +$140.11at 0.370Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75%?
- +$94.10at 0.320Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-11 07:58 | Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | SELL | 0.87 | $195.75 |
| 04-10 17:19 | Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $195.75 |
| 04-09 11:16 | Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.88 | $403.04 |
| 04-09 11:15 | Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.88 | $44.88 |
| 04-07 12:34 | Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? | BUY | 0.88 | $447.92 |
| 03-31 02:30 | Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 29, 2026? | SELL | 0.046 | $10.53 |
| 03-31 02:27 | Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30? | SELL | 0.42 | $255.36 |
| 03-31 02:25 | Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30? | SELL | 0.42 | $139.86 |
| 03-30 15:57 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.77 | $42.35 |
| 03-29 14:45 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.73 | $40.15 |
| 03-26 07:17 | Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 29, 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $37.62 |
| 03-24 06:37 | Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 24, 2026? | SELL | 0.015 | $2.61 |
| 03-23 21:01 | Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.35 | $60.90 |
| 03-23 16:25 | Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $64.70 |
| 03-21 18:30 | Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | SELL | 0.23 | $8.97 |