0x69e9ce2ffa006b2ce6dafeb03b215537c91fc86a
- Realised P&L
- $-28.12
- Volume
- $14.3k
- Markets traded
- 242
- Open portfolio
- $32.99
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded242
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.860 | 0.925 | $9.25 | +$0.65 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.809 | 0.705 | $7.05 | −$1.04 |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.695 | $6.95 | −$0.05 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on September 21? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.325 | $4.78 | −$0.22 |
| Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on September 21? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.165 | $2.75 | −$2.25 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 20? · Yes | 0.475 | 0.105 | $2.21 | −$7.79 |
| Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on September 18? · No | 0.900 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.50 |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on September 18? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.80 |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on September 18? · No | 0.700 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$67.71at 0.736Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?
- +$18.85at 0.623Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
- +$14.60at 0.908Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
- +$13.90at 0.632Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?
- +$13.12at 0.814Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-19 15:33 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.339999985 | $5.00 |
| 09-19 15:32 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.4752474946 | $5.00 |
| 09-19 15:31 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.4752474946 | $5.00 |
| 09-19 15:27 | Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on September 21? | BUY | 0.299999994 | $5.00 |
| 09-18 10:59 | Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on September 18? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.15 |
| 09-17 18:32 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on September 17? | SELL | 0.3 | $1.50 |
| 09-17 14:31 | Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on September 17? | SELL | 0.017 | $0.09 |
| 09-16 08:42 | Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30? | SELL | 0.24 | $4.80 |
| 09-09 19:42 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.81 | $4.05 |
| 08-10 09:33 | Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting? | SELL | 0.61 | $9.15 |
| 08-09 18:22 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.67 | $6.70 |
| 08-04 11:45 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on August 4? | SELL | 0.59 | $5.89 |
| 07-30 08:23 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.58 | $20.30 |
| 07-27 14:02 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | SELL | 0.49 | $8.33 |
| 07-21 19:53 | Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1109 | $2.22 |