Charismeh
0x69a3420c8cbf61aa7d22e6c168f8b4ae786b4af7
- Realised P&L
- $177.82
- Volume
- $75.0k
- Markets traded
- 64
- Open portfolio
- $259.44
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded64
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? · No | 0.570 | 0.735 | $147.00 | +$33.00 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No | 0.580 | 0.625 | $93.82 | +$6.82 |
| Will November be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? · Yes | 0.151 | 0.041 | $18.61 | −$50.07 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$560.76at 0.251Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
- +$215.85at 0.713Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February?
- +$178.84at 0.855Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$174.47at 0.250US government shutdown Saturday?
- +$160.80at 0.769US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-02 01:22 | Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | SELL | 0.82 | $410.00 |
| 09-02 01:20 | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL | 0.94 | $94.00 |
| 09-02 01:20 | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.92 | $78.89 |
| 09-02 01:20 | US recession by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.9194502363 | $367.77 |
| 09-02 01:20 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.962 | $384.80 |
| 06-08 05:43 | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $9.45 |
| 06-08 05:42 | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $42.00 |
| 05-28 09:29 | Nothing Ever Happens: May | BUY | 0.9299999994 | $49.00 |
| 05-26 22:24 | Bank of England rate hike in 2026? | SELL | 0.3 | $55.80 |
| 05-19 02:33 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.5887615019 | $222.67 |
| 05-19 01:45 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.6 | $67.06 |
| 05-06 22:22 | Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.017 | $2.43 |
| 05-05 03:12 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL | 0.999 | $119.88 |
| 04-28 23:20 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.84 | $84.00 |
| 04-28 23:19 | Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | BUY | 0.57 | $114.00 |