racesdavid
0x6990f17c07df168e885b76f1de291f51bb3e1f8d
- Realised P&L
- $7.12
- Volume
- $41.9k
- Markets traded
- 199
- Open portfolio
- $795.03
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded199
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.970 | 0.980 | $391.80 | +$3.80 |
| Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by December 31? · Yes | 0.957 | 0.978 | $97.75 | +$2.05 |
| Will there be 4 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? · No | 0.997 | 0.975 | $81.38 | −$1.88 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No | 0.910 | 0.955 | $47.75 | +$2.25 |
| Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? · No | 0.930 | 0.945 | $47.25 | +$0.75 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? · No | 0.940 | 0.935 | $43.01 | −$0.23 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026 · No | 0.937 | 0.983 | $29.48 | +$1.36 |
| Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026? · No | 0.919 | 0.972 | $29.16 | +$1.57 |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? · No | 0.920 | 0.915 | $27.45 | −$0.15 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$119.30at 0.523Bitcoin above $83,000 on March 21?
- +$17.17at 0.451Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$15.20at 0.929Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
- +$12.00at 0.940Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
- +$11.00at 0.903Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 03:57 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | BUY | 0.94 | $43.24 |
| 11-01 03:41 | Iran leadership change by November 30? | BUY | 0.92 | $27.60 |
| 11-01 03:38 | Will there be 4 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.997 | $83.26 |
| 10-30 09:24 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $315 in October? | BUY | 0.998 | $29.94 |
| 10-29 13:11 | Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in October? | BUY | 0.987 | $17.77 |
| 10-29 13:11 | Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in October? | BUY | 0.997 | $19.94 |
| 10-29 13:11 | Will BNB dip to $600 in October? | BUY | 0.97 | $32.98 |
| 10-09 08:17 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $280 in October? | BUY | 0.9867382353 | $33.55 |
| 10-09 08:14 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $285 in October? | BUY | 0.959 | $47.95 |
| 10-09 08:14 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in October? | BUY | 0.976 | $97.60 |
| 10-09 08:12 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in October? | BUY | 0.986 | $39.44 |
| 10-09 08:03 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.97 | $388.00 |
| 10-09 07:13 | Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026? | BUY | 0.9195933333 | $27.59 |
| 10-09 07:11 | Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $46.50 |
| 10-09 07:10 | Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.988 | $29.64 |