xm39
0x696de7b6e43f45378f60402b9fccff9c7484f89d
- Realised P&L
- $-176.1k
- Volume
- $3.67M
- Markets traded
- 110
- Open portfolio
- $154.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded110
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.182 | 0.165 | $154.4k | −$16.4k |
| Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.011 | $80.67 | −$72.96 |
| Suns vs. Bucks · Bucks | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$69.00 |
| Spread: Raptors (-3.5) · Suns | 0.465 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$93.00 |
| Nuggets vs. Warriors · Nuggets | 0.660 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$46.20 |
| Rockets vs. Knicks · Rockets | 0.410 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.30 |
| Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5) · Timberwolves | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$95.98 |
| Spread: Warriors (-1.5) · Warriors | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Spread: Nuggets (-11.5) · Nuggets | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Spread: Celtics (-17.5) · Nets | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$95.99 |
| Clippers vs. Lakers · Clippers | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.50 |
| Suns vs. Pacers · Pacers | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$33.00 |
| Mavericks vs. Celtics · Mavericks | 0.167 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Spread: Nuggets (-4.5) · Nuggets | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.20 |
| Hawks vs. Celtics · Celtics | 0.115 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.5kat 0.642Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Playoffs
- +$265.10at 0.361Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$222.35at 0.37776ers vs. Timberwolves
- +$175.00at 0.500Grizzlies vs. Pacers
- +$173.40at 0.290Heat vs. Hornets
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 14:48 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.21 | $5.7k |
| 09-11 09:43 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.39 | $14.4k |
| 08-30 23:50 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $11.7k |
| 08-30 23:43 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.15 | $27.4k |
| 08-30 23:43 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.14 | $2.6k |
| 08-27 07:06 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.14 | $2.6k |
| 08-27 07:06 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.14 | $136.2k |
| 08-27 07:06 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.1486597615 | $20.1k |
| 08-22 16:50 | Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Playoffs | BUY | 0.3 | $5.3k |
| 08-22 16:49 | Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Playoffs | SELL | 0.999 | $6.9k |
| 08-22 12:42 | Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Playoffs | BUY | 0.63 | $4.3k |
| 08-22 12:17 | Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Playoffs | BUY | 0.10441156 | $1.6k |
| 08-22 07:52 | Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffs | BUY | 0.2261387229 | $1.2k |
| 08-22 07:51 | Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffs | BUY | 0.2869629333 | $430.44 |
| 08-22 07:32 | Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffs | BUY | 0.4 | $494.31 |