kyrillic
0x69485af5ae3a8cbc409af1e15d4cf6127a9c9b96
- Realised P&L
- $-157.00
- Volume
- $5.0k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $367.03
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration39.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic IPO before 2027? · No | 0.292 | 0.075 | $107.44 | −$311.44 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · No | 0.548 | 0.435 | $86.48 | −$22.57 |
| AI bubble burst in 2026? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.097 | $61.11 | −$39.51 |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? · No | 0.920 | 0.945 | $51.98 | +$1.38 |
| Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.615 | $32.59 | −$15.63 |
| OpenAI acquired before 2027? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.030 | $8.70 | −$11.60 |
| Stripe IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.046 | $6.26 | −$44.06 |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.050 | $6.00 | −$34.80 |
| Anthropic acquired before 2027? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.018 | $3.42 | −$17.48 |
| Ramp IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.025 | $2.55 | −$15.45 |
| Deel IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.006 | $0.50 | −$49.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$40.59at 0.534Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- +$36.88at 0.690Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?
- +$16.93at 0.650Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
- +$9.09at 0.770Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
- +$-6.07at 0.107Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 17:41 | Anthropic IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.2605876962 | $185.57 |
| 10-11 17:40 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | SELL | 0.97 | $44.09 |
| 10-11 17:40 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.94 | $94.00 |
| 10-11 17:40 | Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | SELL | 0.9547633793 | $53.34 |
| 10-11 17:38 | Anthropic IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.25 | $132.62 |
| 10-11 17:37 | Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9463793103 | $137.22 |
| 03-14 15:41 | Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.6499999946 | $36.32 |
| 01-18 08:23 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | BUY | 0.7699999806 | $35.00 |
| 01-14 18:15 | Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.0823132849 | $19.93 |
| 01-14 18:14 | Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.1073984751 | $26.00 |
| 01-11 21:32 | Ramp IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.23 | $11.50 |
| 01-11 21:31 | AI bubble burst in 2026? | BUY | 0.154 | $15.40 |
| 01-11 21:30 | AI bubble burst in 2026? | BUY | 0.154 | $50.82 |
| 01-11 15:56 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.534081 | $53.41 |
| 01-06 00:44 | Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.91 | $48.23 |