juniorBrise
0x6932b776d89010ebe782f9395fdebcb38f04e4a7
- Realised P&L
- $627.62
- Volume
- $380.4k
- Markets traded
- 78
- Open portfolio
- $1.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded78
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration90.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.142 | 0.275 | $1.2k | +$560.22 |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? · Yes | 0.184 | 0.065 | $123.86 | −$226.28 |
| Warriors vs. Timberwolves · Warriors | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.3k |
| Nuggets vs. Thunder · Nuggets | 0.028 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$277.00 |
| Will Arsenal win on 2025-05-07? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.4k |
| UEFA Europa League: Tottenham vs. Bodø/Glimt (To Advance) · Bodø/Glimt | 0.116 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$594.55 |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves · Nuggets | 0.730 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.6k |
| Will Barcelona win on 2025-05-06? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.3k |
| Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? · Yes | 0.133 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$57.00 |
| Bitcoin above $97,000 on May 9? · No | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.5k |
| Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? · Yes | 0.074 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$320.23 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.9kat 0.310Warriors vs. Timberwolves
- +$7.6kat 0.240Pacers vs. Cavaliers
- +$2.0kat 0.190Nets vs. 76ers
- +$1.2kat 0.587Knicks vs. Hawks
- +$1.1kat 0.982Israel announces ceasefire by January 16?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-01 04:19 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.18 | $35.46 |
| 05-01 01:15 | Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | BUY | 0.73 | $3.6k |
| 05-01 01:06 | Knicks vs. Hawks | SELL | 0.999 | $3.0k |
| 04-30 22:55 | Knicks vs. Hawks | BUY | 0.58 | $1.7k |
| 04-30 21:13 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.1837516072 | $350.14 |
| 04-30 21:01 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $561.55 |
| 05-08 02:33 | Nuggets vs. Thunder | BUY | 0.0277 | $277.00 |
| 05-07 21:05 | Bitcoin above $97,000 on May 9? | BUY | 0.55 | $2.2k |
| 05-06 23:38 | Warriors vs. Timberwolves | BUY | 0.31 | $1.7k |
| 05-06 14:20 | Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | SELL | 0.999 | $4.2k |
| 05-06 14:16 | Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | BUY | 0.9705097793 | $4.1k |
| 05-06 13:00 | Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? | BUY | 0.0119090909 | $13.10 |
| 02-28 00:35 | Warriors vs. Magic | BUY | 0.43 | $43.00 |
| 02-26 03:49 | Suns vs. Grizzlies | SELL | 0.999 | $999.00 |
| 02-26 01:43 | Bucks vs. Rockets | BUY | 0.48 | $311.68 |