subject1
0x687aa12ee4b93787894e6b8f18de9f7c71b1c174
- Realised P&L
- $6.14
- Volume
- $1.4k
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $36.83
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration94.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample29 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? · No | 0.999 | 0.996 | $36.83 | −$0.13 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$102.00at 0.500International T20 Series: Canada vs Italy (Game 1) - Who wins the toss?
- +$0.88at 0.950Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?
- +$0.81at 0.985Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3?
- +$0.61at 0.965Israel strikes Yemen by Friday?
- +$0.53at 0.990US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 14:18 | Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.999 | $36.96 |
| 09-09 09:10 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 9? | BUY | 0.993 | $28.80 |
| 08-18 02:42 | Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23? | BUY | 0.997 | $23.93 |
| 07-08 06:19 | GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $76.85 |
| 06-28 06:10 | Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $140 end of June? | BUY | 0.999 | $80.92 |
| 06-07 13:41 | Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $63.94 |
| 05-28 06:33 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $42.96 |
| 05-15 09:41 | Netanyahu out by May 31? | BUY | 0.992 | $39.68 |
| 05-05 10:31 | Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10? | BUY | 0.999 | $65.93 |
| 04-19 02:24 | Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $122.86 |
| 03-24 01:57 | Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $156.84 |
| 03-06 08:57 | Will Iran strike Bahrain in March? | BUY | 0.996 | $104.96 |
| 03-06 08:54 | Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $126.33 |
| 02-20 07:07 | Will GTA 6 cost $100+? | BUY | 0.996 | $65.00 |
| 02-02 06:50 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on February 2? | BUY | 0.999 | $0.93 |