0x681d59192374eac956cd236915a6f79ac0a9781b
0x681d59192374eac956cd236915a6f79ac0a9781b
- Realised P&L
- $-88.01
- Volume
- $2.7k
- Markets traded
- 42
- Open portfolio
- $91.14
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded42
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample35 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)45.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.215 | 0.183 | $36.34 | −$6.24 |
| OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.794 | $35.35 | +$6.42 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.125 | 0.100 | $16.33 | −$4.19 |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.165 | $1.59 | −$0.14 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.125 | $0.96 | −$3.49 |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.080 | $0.57 | −$0.43 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.283 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$48.07at 0.221Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$17.89at 0.585Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$15.67at 0.708Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 14?
- +$14.36at 0.639Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?
- +$10.99at 0.567Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-07 00:33 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET | BUY | 0.8 | $5.21 |
| 10-07 00:32 | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves | BUY | 0.92 | $5.37 |
| 09-16 07:13 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.1299999937 | $1.24 |
| 09-16 07:13 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.88 | $1.67 |
| 09-06 08:51 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | BUY | 0.0389999635 | $1.00 |
| 09-06 08:50 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.8299999712 | $1.44 |
| 09-06 08:50 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 6? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.90 |
| 08-28 23:53 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in August? | BUY | 0.2599999736 | $6.10 |
| 08-28 23:52 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August? | BUY | 0.32 | $12.86 |
| 08-21 14:22 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 in August? | BUY | 0.6999998641 | $1.03 |
| 08-21 14:22 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in August? | BUY | 0.4232195395 | $4.75 |
| 08-21 14:21 | Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August? | BUY | 0.3211156965 | $6.68 |
| 08-21 14:21 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August? | BUY | 0.5469999925 | $13.88 |
| 08-15 06:10 | Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.1399998824 | $1.00 |
| 08-15 06:10 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on August 15? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.00 |