PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

tonler

0x67fa1fe8df1f12444234401cceb65ae455b612e2

Realised P&L
$120.78
Volume
$14.6k
Markets traded
24
Open portfolio
$472.72

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded24
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration91.1% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample13 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)84.6%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration98.3% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? · Yes0.0890.071$464.64−$117.59
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.2220.183$7.33−$1.54
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026? · Yes0.0020.001$0.50−$1.50
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? · Yes0.0040.001$0.24−$1.78
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET · Down0.2330.000$0.00−$2.00
Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? · No0.1690.000$0.00−$10.13
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on October 1? · Yes0.5500.000$0.00−$2.75
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET · Down0.4200.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during remarks at NASA? · No0.3700.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Trump say "Moon Base" during remarks at NASA? · Yes0.3000.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Trump say "China" or "Chinese" during remarks at NASA? · Yes0.5700.000$0.00−$3.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-13 12:01Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.2219999997$8.87
10-01 04:54Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on October 1?BUY0.95$8.55
10-01 04:50Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on October 1?BUY0.55$2.75
09-30 17:24Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?SELL0.995$24.27
09-15 18:36Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?SELL0.91$46.85
09-02 13:05Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?BUY0.0599999989$50.00
08-30 11:31Will it rain in Chicago, IL on August 30?BUY0.8$8.00
08-30 11:15Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?BUY0.7299999876$10.00
08-29 08:38Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ETBUY0.1699998861$1.00
08-29 08:37Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ETBUY0.3699998631$1.00
08-28 13:45Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?BUY0.819999982$20.00
08-28 13:43Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?BUY0.59999994$2.00
08-28 13:41Will Trump say "Never Seen Anything" during remarks at NASA?BUY0.6499997942$3.00
08-28 13:41Will Trump say "Oil," "Gas," or "Gasoline" during remarks at NASA?BUY0.7599997669$3.00
08-28 13:41Will Trump say "Moon Base" during remarks at NASA?BUY0.29999982$1.00