0x650cfd020ed0f18de9d6a1a71d4437684fcbe24e
- Realised P&L
- $-37.88
- Volume
- $3.9k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $33.26
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration68.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · Yes | 0.599 | 0.543 | $22.68 | −$2.32 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.125 | 0.167 | $9.29 | +$2.29 |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T? · Yes | 0.236 | 0.112 | $0.47 | −$0.53 |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.0T and $1.25T? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.080 | $0.42 | −$0.58 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.092 | 0.036 | $0.39 | −$0.61 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$-1.05at 0.074Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?
- +$-1.05at 0.001Will StepFun have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?
- +$-1.05at 0.017Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
- +$-1.05at 0.014Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?
- +$-1.05at 0.011Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-27 08:22 | Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | BUY | 0.5990210653 | $25.00 |
| 08-27 08:21 | Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.0109999892 | $1.00 |
| 08-22 15:57 | Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.0T and $1.25T? | BUY | 0.1899998784 | $1.00 |
| 08-22 15:57 | Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T? | BUY | 0.2359998272 | $1.00 |
| 08-22 15:53 | Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.0919999183 | $1.00 |
| 08-22 15:51 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 27? | BUY | 0.05 | $1.00 |
| 08-22 15:49 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.0157635468 | $1.00 |
| 08-22 07:47 | Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.0706326467 | $1.00 |
| 08-22 07:44 | Will StepFun have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 08-22 07:44 | Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.0129999873 | $1.00 |
| 08-22 07:44 | Will Bytedance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.0044951901 | $1.00 |
| 08-22 07:44 | Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.0056106172 | $1.00 |
| 07-16 13:24 | Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.1254444453 | $7.00 |
| 07-16 13:21 | Will CXMT’s market cap be 400 billion yuan or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0035101556 | $1.85 |
| 07-16 12:20 | Will CXMT’s market cap be 400 billion yuan or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0189999963 | $5.00 |