0xfcb034ffesa540c81ad37321212f6e0c762feac8
0x64c8ec47e1f5a367f234a74f8176d805e87173ce
- Realised P&L
- $-124.4k
- Volume
- $11.29M
- Markets traded
- 110
- Open portfolio
- $369.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded110
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$118.5kat 0.780Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$51.1kat 0.849Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?
- +$32.5kat 0.943Will Biden finish his term?
- +$28.2kat 0.680Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
- +$22.9kat 0.885Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 18:13 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.71 | $12.6k |
| 11-01 18:13 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.71 | $6.2k |
| 11-01 05:35 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.42957256 | $1.7k |
| 11-01 05:34 | Will Angela Gonzales-Torres win the CA-34 House seat? | BUY | 0.81 | $16.20 |
| 10-22 18:59 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.53 | $53.00 |
| 10-22 18:58 | Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.53 | $78.28 |
| 10-22 18:58 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.529 | $21.15 |
| 10-21 00:24 | Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $6.4k |
| 10-20 06:24 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.71 | $8.2k |
| 10-15 16:38 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Minnesota Attorney General election? | BUY | 0.7703129089 | $1.1k |
| 10-15 16:34 | Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $43.8k |
| 10-15 16:32 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $8.2k |
| 10-15 16:31 | Will Angela Gonzales-Torres win the CA-34 House seat? | BUY | 0.7820518422 | $1.7k |
| 09-16 21:03 | Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $6.0k |
| 09-15 08:00 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.88 | $176.0k |