prediction-mark

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

✕ BlockerEdge per dollar-4.0%

Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.

✕ BlockerMarkets traded12

Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.

✕ BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position

Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.

▲ CautionSettled sample5 positions

Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.

? Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%

Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.

▲ CautionOpen concentration98.5% in top position

Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.