PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

B1431012

0x649ba1a419121c49e66a06583986e23f0552dadc

Realised P&L
$-13.97
Volume
$1.5k
Markets traded
17
Open portfolio
$72.28

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded17
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration51.1% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample3 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration31.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Iran leadership change by December 31? · Yes0.2600.195$22.50$7.50
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No0.5600.395$14.11$5.89
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · No0.4900.210$8.57$11.43
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31? · Yes0.3600.045$6.32$43.68
Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · Yes0.3300.195$5.91$4.09
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? · No0.3400.100$5.88$14.12
Iran leadership change by September 30? · Yes0.1500.055$5.50$9.50
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31? · Yes0.1130.027$2.39$7.61
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? · No0.2200.016$0.95$12.06
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? · Yes0.0870.000$0.00$8.87
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? · Yes0.2000.000$0.00$10.00
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 10? · Yes0.2380.000$0.00$10.00
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? · Yes0.4310.000$0.00$20.00
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? · Yes0.1880.000$0.00$20.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-02 01:33Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?SELL0.16$5.09
08-01 05:16Israel closes its airspace by August 31?SELL0.29$8.79
08-01 05:11Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?BUY0.4899999939$20.00
08-01 03:19Israel closes its airspace by August 31?BUY0.3299999922$20.00
08-01 03:18Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?BUY0.3399999912$20.00
08-01 03:18Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?BUY0.2199999936$20.00
07-29 02:46Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?BUY0.2399999942$25.00
07-29 02:45US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?BUY0.5599999989$20.00
07-29 02:34US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?SELL0.58$45.49
07-26 04:41US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?BUY0.5099999973$40.00
07-22 23:01Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?BUY0.4307955832$20.00
07-22 05:490 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?BUY0.1129999903$10.00
07-22 05:45Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?BUY0.3599999977$50.00
07-19 04:40Iran leadership change by September 30?BUY0.15$15.00
07-19 04:40Iran leadership change by December 31?BUY0.2599999945$30.00