B1431012
0x649ba1a419121c49e66a06583986e23f0552dadc
- Realised P&L
- $-13.97
- Volume
- $1.5k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $72.28
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration51.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$88.64at 0.220Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?
- +$79.17at 0.240Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?
- +$5.49at 0.510US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 01:33 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | SELL | 0.16 | $5.09 |
| 08-01 05:16 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | SELL | 0.29 | $8.79 |
| 08-01 05:11 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.4899999939 | $20.00 |
| 08-01 03:19 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.3299999922 | $20.00 |
| 08-01 03:18 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | BUY | 0.3399999912 | $20.00 |
| 08-01 03:18 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.2199999936 | $20.00 |
| 07-29 02:46 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30? | BUY | 0.2399999942 | $25.00 |
| 07-29 02:45 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.5599999989 | $20.00 |
| 07-29 02:34 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | SELL | 0.58 | $45.49 |
| 07-26 04:41 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.5099999973 | $40.00 |
| 07-22 23:01 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? | BUY | 0.4307955832 | $20.00 |
| 07-22 05:49 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31? | BUY | 0.1129999903 | $10.00 |
| 07-22 05:45 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31? | BUY | 0.3599999977 | $50.00 |
| 07-19 04:40 | Iran leadership change by September 30? | BUY | 0.15 | $15.00 |
| 07-19 04:40 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | BUY | 0.2599999945 | $30.00 |