B1431012
0x649ba1a419121c49e66a06583986e23f0552dadc
- Realised P&L
- $-5.56
- Volume
- $2.2k
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $104.66
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration88.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$88.64at 0.220Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?
- +$79.17at 0.240Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?
- +$78.50at 0.1130 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?
- +$5.49at 0.510US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
- +$-1.90at 0.150Iran successfully targets shipping on August 14, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-18 15:09 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | BUY | 0.0699999874 | $5.00 |
| 08-18 03:31 | Iran successfully targets shipping on August 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.189999988 | $10.00 |
| 08-16 17:32 | Iran successfully targets shipping on August 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.2920962071 | $15.00 |
| 08-16 17:32 | Iran successfully targets shipping on August 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.1509476683 | $10.00 |
| 08-14 19:19 | Iran successfully targets shipping on August 14, 2026? | SELL | 0.130999 | $13.10 |
| 08-14 07:59 | Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999964 | $50.00 |
| 08-10 23:22 | Iran successfully targets shipping on August 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $15.00 |
| 08-08 18:53 | Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3317073095 | $20.00 |
| 08-08 18:43 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.1 | $10.00 |
| 08-02 01:33 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | SELL | 0.16 | $5.09 |
| 08-01 05:16 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | SELL | 0.29 | $8.79 |
| 08-01 05:11 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.4899999939 | $20.00 |
| 08-01 03:19 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.3299999922 | $20.00 |
| 08-01 03:18 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | BUY | 0.3399999912 | $20.00 |
| 08-01 03:18 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.2199999936 | $20.00 |