PolyBot

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Traders

B1431012

0x649ba1a419121c49e66a06583986e23f0552dadc

Realised P&L
$-5.56
Volume
$2.2k
Markets traded
22
Open portfolio
$104.66

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded22
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration35.2% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample5 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration88.0% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.3650.480$92.10+$22.10
Iran leadership change by December 31? · Yes0.2600.105$12.12−$17.88
Iran leadership change by September 30? · Yes0.1500.004$0.45−$14.55
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? · Yes0.0870.000$0.00−$8.87
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? · No0.2200.000$0.00−$13.00
Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · Yes0.3300.000$0.00−$10.00
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? · Yes0.2000.000$0.00−$10.00
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · No0.2130.000$0.00−$30.00
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No0.5600.000$0.00−$20.00
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 10? · Yes0.2380.000$0.00−$10.00
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? · No0.3400.000$0.00−$20.00
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? · Yes0.4310.000$0.00−$20.00
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 21, 2026? · Yes0.1510.000$0.00−$10.00
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? · Yes0.1880.000$0.00−$20.00
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? · No0.0700.000$0.00−$5.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-18 15:09Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?BUY0.0699999874$5.00
08-18 03:31Iran successfully targets shipping on August 22, 2026?BUY0.189999988$10.00
08-16 17:32Iran successfully targets shipping on August 22, 2026?BUY0.2920962071$15.00
08-16 17:32Iran successfully targets shipping on August 21, 2026?BUY0.1509476683$10.00
08-14 19:19Iran successfully targets shipping on August 14, 2026?SELL0.130999$13.10
08-14 07:59Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026?BUY0.3799999964$50.00
08-10 23:22Iran successfully targets shipping on August 14, 2026?BUY0.15$15.00
08-08 18:53Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026?BUY0.3317073095$20.00
08-08 18:43Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?BUY0.1$10.00
08-02 01:33Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?SELL0.16$5.09
08-01 05:16Israel closes its airspace by August 31?SELL0.29$8.79
08-01 05:11Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?BUY0.4899999939$20.00
08-01 03:19Israel closes its airspace by August 31?BUY0.3299999922$20.00
08-01 03:18Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?BUY0.3399999912$20.00
08-01 03:18Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?BUY0.2199999936$20.00