Mr.Polaki
0x6435933d924e35f2f242db670d3697eba3e1cbc8
- Realised P&L
- $-438.70
- Volume
- $174.1k
- Markets traded
- 129
- Open portfolio
- $30.55
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded129
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration91.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$636.92at 0.479US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$417.46at 0.164Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$328.07at 0.427Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?
- +$248.74at 0.1170 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?
- +$169.70at 0.686US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-23 13:56 | Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be at least 570m by August 31? | SELL | 0.0700956455 | $167.45 |
| 08-17 14:12 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET | BUY | 0.08 | $5.00 |
| 08-16 16:22 | Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be at least 570m by August 31? | BUY | 0.0251169747 | $60.00 |
| 08-16 16:15 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31? | SELL | 0.2133934995 | $548.74 |
| 08-04 20:03 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31? | BUY | 0.0854537693 | $24.00 |
| 08-04 20:02 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31? | BUY | 0.1166636947 | $300.00 |
| 07-31 20:35 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $324.35 |
| 07-21 14:44 | Will Swim – BTS be the top song for 2026? | BUY | 0.1499999964 | $33.23 |
| 07-21 14:42 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.5943396221 | $210.00 |
| 07-21 14:41 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.7699999995 | $250.00 |
| 07-19 22:28 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.999 | $499.50 |
| 06-15 16:27 | Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.004 | $26.67 |
| 06-15 16:02 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0307135624 | $20.00 |
| 06-15 16:01 | Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.015 | $16.67 |
| 06-11 19:59 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4199999992 | $110.00 |