Tebesius
0x6430e217de383e5e26090cd0ec9391f313f8f4db
- Realised P&L
- $-495.96
- Volume
- $8.4k
- Markets traded
- 33
- Open portfolio
- $175.32
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded33
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$125.80at 0.370US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?
- +$49.20at 0.289Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$48.57at 0.521Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
- +$23.45at 0.290US forces enter Iran by March 31?
- +$23.44at 0.631Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 15:29 | Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.038 | $25.97 |
| 07-24 12:14 | Will Francois Hollande win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections? | BUY | 0.1297587407 | $32.02 |
| 07-24 12:11 | Will Éric Zemmour announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | BUY | 0.4313725442 | $30.00 |
| 05-23 17:09 | Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | BUY | 0.486168506 | $30.00 |
| 05-23 17:07 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6305418719 | $40.00 |
| 04-29 21:42 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? | BUY | 0.08 | $30.00 |
| 03-24 14:38 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | SELL | 0.998 | $101.57 |
| 03-14 14:05 | Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0416355156 | $32.47 |
| 03-11 22:07 | Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by March 31? | BUY | 0.4499999974 | $35.00 |
| 03-11 22:00 | France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.879 | $67.47 |
| 03-11 21:58 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | BUY | 0.5599999995 | $44.50 |
| 03-08 17:12 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | BUY | 0.6049999912 | $25.00 |
| 03-08 17:11 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.46 | $63.45 |
| 03-08 17:08 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | BUY | 0.6339999106 | $2.00 |
| 03-06 18:09 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | BUY | 0.5299999946 | $40.00 |