pop
0x6404bfa37fe830e29ee8967e1c3b2a8091d5f250
- Realised P&L
- $27.3k
- Volume
- $1.87M
- Markets traded
- 305
- Open portfolio
- $36.9k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded305
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.1kat 0.141Will the Ethereum Merge (EIP-3675) occur by September 1, 2022?
- +$9.3kat 0.111Will the Fed set interest rates above 2.50% (100 bps or more) after their scheduled July meeting?
- +$9.3kat 0.728Will Biden finish his term?
- +$8.6kat 0.055Will Russia use a nuclear weapon before 2023?
- +$7.4kat 0.634Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 00:01 | Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.44 | $1.1k |
| 11-01 00:01 | Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.44 | $1.1k |
| 10-31 23:53 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.7 | $3.5k |
| 10-28 04:28 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.52 | $1.1k |
| 10-28 04:28 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.5207143089 | $3.2k |
| 10-25 22:57 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.77 | $0.49 |
| 10-25 22:56 | Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | SELL | 0.7607492364 | $659.99 |
| 10-25 22:48 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.631 | $631.00 |
| 10-21 01:38 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.87 | $4.3k |
| 10-17 19:41 | Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.68 | $65.44 |
| 10-14 00:42 | Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.79 | $166.85 |
| 10-09 01:34 | Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.1987988 | $159.04 |
| 10-09 01:32 | Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.2099469582 | $364.43 |
| 10-09 01:02 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.856 | $2.8k |
| 10-07 04:32 | Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime? | BUY | 0.72 | $1.8k |