0x63767Dc16D7703f58B486Da998567c1693A3F5A1-1774313888289
0x63767dc16d7703f58b486da998567c1693a3f5a1
- Realised P&L
- $-4.1k
- Volume
- $75.3k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $403.08
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration55.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)85.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.071 | 0.055 | $403.08 | −$115.91 |
| Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva · Marta Kostyuk | 0.554 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.5k |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? · No | 0.939 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.0k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.5kat 0.731Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
- +$484.62at 0.810US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$424.52at 0.930US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
- +$103.64at 0.967US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?
- +$102.47at 0.977US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-26 18:17 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0708167222 | $519.00 |
| 06-02 18:01 | Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva | BUY | 0.5540751634 | $2.5k |
| 05-01 17:18 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8099999999 | $2.1k |
| 05-01 17:17 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9393258909 | $4.0k |
| 04-23 18:19 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $5.6k |
| 04-23 18:19 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? | SELL | 0.995 | $5.6k |
| 04-22 21:26 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.9769278281 | $5.5k |
| 04-22 21:26 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $5.5k |
| 04-21 19:23 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.9599492643 | $5.3k |
| 04-20 13:50 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.78 | $5.3k |
| 04-20 12:48 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $5.7k |
| 04-14 16:20 | Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.9829980838 | $5.6k |
| 04-01 13:18 | Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.7540698857 | $3.1k |
| 03-26 12:51 | Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.6699999998 | $1.0k |
| 03-24 12:43 | US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? | BUY | 0.9665510385 | $3.0k |