Lars3n
0x6366a92accd505fc71b7d4c770f07cfa49012333
- Realised P&L
- $3.04
- Volume
- $43.30
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $35.52
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar7.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration39.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by September 30? · No | 0.892 | 0.945 | $10.60 | +$0.60 |
| Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.991 | 0.992 | $10.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will Natus Vincere Win the StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026? · No | 0.910 | 0.900 | $9.89 | −$0.11 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.910 | 0.915 | $5.03 | +$0.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.97at 0.512Karpat Oulu vs. Ilves Tampere
- +$0.76at 0.572KooKoo vs. JYP Jyvaskyla
- +$0.70at 0.592SaiPa Lappeenranta vs. Kiekko-Espoo
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 09:05 | Karpat Oulu vs. Ilves Tampere | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 09:05 | KooKoo vs. JYP Jyvaskyla | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 09:08 | SaiPa Lappeenranta vs. Kiekko-Espoo | BUY | 0.5799999768 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 09:03 | Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by September 30? | BUY | 0.8918838553 | $10.00 |
| 09-15 09:03 | Will Natus Vincere Win the StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026? | BUY | 0.9099999991 | $10.00 |
| 09-15 08:58 | Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.9909999368 | $10.00 |
| 09-15 08:58 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $5.00 |