jumpsquad
0x635cfc3676fcd4bc65d177214eb5f9fdf73645c6
- Realised P&L
- $-54.5k
- Volume
- $2.51M
- Markets traded
- 100
- Open portfolio
- $19.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded100
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration84.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.681 | 0.555 | $16.3k | −$3.7k |
| Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.362 | 0.281 | $3.1k | −$891.71 |
| Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? · Yes | 0.234 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.5k |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.334 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.0k |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs · Spurs | 0.850 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.0k |
| Spread: Eagles (-4.5) · Eagles | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.0k |
| Maduro mugshot released by January 9? · Yes | 0.581 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.0k |
| Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.0k |
| Pistons vs. Magic · Pistons | 0.607 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.0k |
| Spread: Belgium (-1.5) · United States | 0.860 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.0k |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.536 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.0k |
| Will France win on 2026-07-18? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.0k |
| Stars vs. Sharks · Stars | 0.764 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.5k |
| 49ers vs. Eagles · Eagles | 0.791 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.0k |
| Packers vs. Bears: O/U 49.5 · Under | 0.628 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.0k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$35.0kat 0.368Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$29.9kat 0.672Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?
- +$26.9kat 0.650Clippers vs. Knicks
- +$22.5kat 0.477England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
- +$14.2kat 0.517Spread: Thunder (-3.5)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-27 12:57 | Pistons vs. Knicks | BUY | 0.61 | $20.0k |
| 09-24 15:03 | Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.3483315244 | $2.0k |
| 09-24 15:03 | Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.69 | $10.0k |
| 09-24 03:19 | Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.3773465351 | $2.0k |
| 09-24 03:19 | Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.673239652 | $10.0k |
| 09-15 17:36 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.1377689791 | $2.0k |
| 09-15 16:27 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.1223598874 | $7.0k |
| 09-14 08:00 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.3468905838 | $5.0k |
| 09-11 13:08 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.1744358792 | $10.0k |
| 07-29 18:05 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.999 | $27.2k |
| 07-29 16:07 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7332293913 | $20.0k |
| 07-28 19:12 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.2159646425 | $3.9k |
| 07-28 02:22 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.274 | $5.0k |
| 07-19 18:45 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5874999999 | $10.0k |
| 07-18 19:53 | Will France win on 2026-07-18? | BUY | 0.55 | $10.0k |