0x6306db49007ad384898a85600d7359ff77c7e4f6
- Realised P&L
- $-6.81
- Volume
- $222.04
- Markets traded
- 52
- Open portfolio
- $4.09
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded52
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.650 | $2.36 | +$0.36 |
| Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.225 | $1.73 | −$0.27 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.46at 0.217Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $600 Week of August 3 2026?
- +$6.35at 0.610Visa (V) Q2 payments volume growth (constant dollars) 8.5%-9.5%?
- +$2.00at 0.500US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
- +$1.95at 0.512Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$1.77at 0.530US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 10:20 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 02:06 | Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $2.00 |
| 09-11 23:27 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 22:14 | Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.699999965 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 13:36 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.00 |
| 08-31 23:08 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $97.50 Week of August 31 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $2.00 |
| 08-23 21:42 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.5899999675 | $2.00 |
| 08-22 22:14 | Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in July? | BUY | 0.2199999164 | $2.00 |
| 08-22 10:39 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in August? | BUY | 0.72 | $2.00 |
| 08-22 01:57 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August? | BUY | 0.2399999184 | $2.00 |
| 08-21 05:48 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299999087 | $2.00 |
| 08-17 03:04 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $186 Week of August 17 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $2.00 |
| 08-17 02:22 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $183 Week of August 17 2026? | BUY | 0.59999994 | $2.00 |
| 08-16 17:12 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 08-14 03:18 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999272 | $2.00 |