0x6302CDeFa498e7174dd0fcD6b06652A38eAe7917-1720863615256
0x6302cdefa498e7174dd0fcd6b06652a38eae7917
- Realised P&L
- $98.1k
- Volume
- $3.22M
- Markets traded
- 111
- Open portfolio
- $165.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded111
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration53.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$64.3kat 0.604Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
- +$14.9kat 0.745Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$12.7kat 0.715Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
- +$11.5kat 0.875Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
- +$7.6kat 0.945No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 12:00 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.93 | $161.8k |
| 10-29 10:57 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.025 | $87.50 |
| 10-22 05:12 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0289756295 | $160.00 |
| 10-22 05:11 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.024 | $1.20 |
| 10-22 04:58 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.024 | $7.20 |
| 10-22 04:58 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.024 | $2.40 |
| 10-22 04:52 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.023 | $17.69 |
| 10-15 13:54 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.028 | $39.20 |
| 10-14 05:17 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.81 | $29.7k |
| 09-15 11:13 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.88 | $50.4k |
| 09-01 05:27 | Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.89 | $2.8k |
| 07-27 16:22 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.729 | $5.1k |
| 07-27 16:20 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.729 | $4.4k |
| 07-27 16:19 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.729 | $801.90 |
| 07-27 16:18 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.729 | $874.80 |