0x6302CDeFa498e7174dd0fcD6b06652A38eAe7917-1720863615256
0x6302cdefa498e7174dd0fcd6b06652a38eae7917
- Realised P&L
- $32.1k
- Volume
- $2.96M
- Markets traded
- 109
- Open portfolio
- $62.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded109
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration91.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.9kat 0.745Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$11.5kat 0.875Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
- +$7.6kat 0.945No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
- +$7.6kat 0.924Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
- +$7.4kat 0.917Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 11:13 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.88 | $50.4k |
| 09-01 05:27 | Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.89 | $2.8k |
| 07-27 16:22 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.729 | $5.1k |
| 07-27 16:20 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.729 | $4.4k |
| 07-27 16:19 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.729 | $801.90 |
| 07-27 16:18 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.729 | $874.80 |
| 07-27 16:18 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.729 | $2.3k |
| 07-27 16:16 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.728 | $13.1k |
| 05-17 13:26 | Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | BUY | 0.0408902419 | $100.00 |
| 04-24 05:11 | Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | SELL | 0.003 | $13.35 |
| 04-16 16:39 | Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? | SELL | 0.3861575385 | $1.0k |
| 04-16 16:38 | Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? | SELL | 0.4003666667 | $360.33 |
| 04-16 13:45 | Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | SELL | 0.938010048 | $4.7k |
| 04-16 13:44 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.9828929386 | $10.3k |
| 04-16 13:43 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.99 | $33.6k |