lava-lava
0x629bc4a1e53e1d475beb7ea3d388791e96dd995a
- Realised P&L
- $1.00M
- Volume
- $40.60M
- Markets traded
- 1,344
- Open portfolio
- $249.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,344
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration28.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration13.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$118.9kat 0.566Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?
- +$104.1kat 0.002Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
- +$95.4kat 0.614Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
- +$86.5kat 0.055Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- +$74.1kat 0.713Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 20:36 | Will Linke win the second-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.1467111312 | $103.71 |
| 09-17 20:10 | Will Grüne win less than 14% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.2361764706 | $481.80 |
| 09-17 18:43 | Will Linke win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.1464449273 | $135.46 |
| 09-17 16:35 | Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.76 | $13.5k |
| 09-17 11:40 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.74 | $234.65 |
| 09-17 11:40 | Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.0k |
| 09-17 11:12 | Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.24 | $185.02 |
| 09-17 11:05 | Will AfD win at least 38% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.42 | $152.29 |
| 09-17 11:05 | Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.08 | $10.12 |
| 09-17 11:05 | Will CDU win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.08 | $26.70 |
| 09-17 10:52 | Will SPD win less than 10% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.557 | $92.46 |
| 09-17 10:49 | Will UTJ win fewer than 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? | BUY | 0.0655086605 | $15.05 |
| 09-17 10:47 | Will UTJ win 7-8 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? | BUY | 0.2510475727 | $165.07 |
| 09-17 10:43 | Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.1769819997 | $140.01 |
| 09-16 22:50 | Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.23 | $176.87 |