Aquati
0x62648c452ccf7fd55240719c5ffd730c2cb89937
- Realised P&L
- $19.8k
- Volume
- $1.17M
- Markets traded
- 604
- Open portfolio
- $2.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded604
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration75.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No | 0.810 | 0.972 | $1.9k | +$323.00 |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.531 | 0.100 | $250.00 | −$1.1k |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No | 0.607 | 0.487 | $243.75 | −$59.65 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? · No | 0.872 | 0.983 | $98.25 | +$11.05 |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? · No | 0.610 | 0.860 | $8.60 | +$2.50 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.202 | 0.162 | $8.07 | −$2.02 |
| Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? · Yes | 0.234 | 0.101 | $5.03 | −$6.69 |
| Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.065 | $1.95 | −$5.25 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.5kat 0.860Yoon arrested by January 31?
- +$3.0kat 0.584Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
- +$2.6kat 0.139Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?
- +$2.5kat 0.690Yoon out as president of South Korea before May?
- +$2.0kat 0.568Yoon arrested by Friday?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-16 20:40 | Will Bulgaria be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.65 | $32.50 |
| 04-22 20:54 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.608 | $243.20 |
| 04-21 13:15 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.202 | $10.10 |
| 04-19 09:14 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | SELL | 0.1751 | $105.06 |
| 04-16 14:17 | Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $8.20 |
| 04-16 14:17 | Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $16.40 |
| 04-16 14:16 | Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.667 | $6.67 |
| 04-16 11:21 | Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.24 | $7.20 |
| 04-15 18:51 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | BUY | 0.61 | $6.10 |
| 04-15 18:51 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | BUY | 0.69 | $34.50 |
| 04-15 10:58 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | SELL | 0.181 | $54.30 |
| 04-12 14:18 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | BUY | 0.56 | $28.00 |
| 04-12 07:24 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY | 0.41 | $41.00 |
| 04-08 19:57 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY | 0.675 | $337.50 |
| 04-08 17:05 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY | 0.739 | $56.90 |