PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

Aquati

0x62648c452ccf7fd55240719c5ffd730c2cb89937

Realised P&L
$19.8k
Volume
$1.17M
Markets traded
604
Open portfolio
$2.6k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded604
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration21.1% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration75.9% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No0.8100.972$1.9k+$323.00
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes0.5310.100$250.00$1.1k
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No0.6070.487$243.75$59.65
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? · No0.8720.983$98.25+$11.05
US strike on Cuba by December 31? · No0.6100.860$8.60+$2.50
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.2020.162$8.07$2.02
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? · Yes0.2340.101$5.03$6.69
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes0.2400.065$1.95$5.25

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
05-16 20:40Will Bulgaria be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?BUY0.65$32.50
04-22 20:54Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?BUY0.608$243.20
04-21 13:15Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?BUY0.202$10.10
04-19 09:14Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?SELL0.1751$105.06
04-16 14:17Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026?BUY0.82$8.20
04-16 14:17Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026?BUY0.82$16.40
04-16 14:16Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?BUY0.667$6.67
04-16 11:21Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?BUY0.24$7.20
04-15 18:51US strike on Cuba by December 31?BUY0.61$6.10
04-15 18:51Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?BUY0.69$34.50
04-15 10:58Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?SELL0.181$54.30
04-12 14:18Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?BUY0.56$28.00
04-12 07:24Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?BUY0.41$41.00
04-08 19:57Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?BUY0.675$337.50
04-08 17:05Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?BUY0.739$56.90