zollar
0x62617d56180ac7f9e2a2bec5bb56bd24a6897ce4
- Realised P&L
- $10.5k
- Volume
- $720.2k
- Markets traded
- 174
- Open portfolio
- $4.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded174
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.9kat 0.728Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$10.4kat 0.2342024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104
- +$9.8kat 0.243Trump wins every swing state?
- +$899.73at 0.850Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary?
- +$832.34at 0.340Will Reddit IPO at between $7.5b-10b valuation?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 10:26 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $202.00 |
| 11-01 10:25 | Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.28 | $252.00 |
| 11-01 10:20 | Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $300.00 |
| 11-01 10:16 | Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.678 | $949.20 |
| 11-01 10:15 | Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.675 | $85.73 |
| 10-26 13:50 | Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.9155244891 | $4.5k |
| 09-20 16:05 | Will BSW win less than 3% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.9423960419 | $200.00 |
| 09-20 16:04 | Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.1194372923 | $100.00 |
| 09-14 16:30 | Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.0085433575 | $18.00 |
| 09-14 16:25 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.0861087289 | $70.00 |
| 09-03 20:41 | ChatGPT Outage by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.8799999993 | $52.00 |
| 09-03 20:38 | ChatGPT Full Outage by September 30? | SELL | 0.2037410147 | $313.48 |
| 09-03 15:00 | ChatGPT Full Outage by September 30? | BUY | 0.4717549289 | $100.00 |
| 09-03 15:00 | ChatGPT Full Outage by September 30? | BUY | 0.3768895936 | $500.00 |
| 09-03 14:57 | ChatGPT Outage by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.5290728367 | $250.00 |