marine-hololive
0x61e9624b50db49439af4d8caeda7c115a4e9d676
- Realised P&L
- $13.29
- Volume
- $3.3k
- Markets traded
- 37
- Open portfolio
- $193.66
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded37
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample32 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.948 | 0.949 | $55.16 | +$0.03 |
| Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? · No | 0.957 | 0.996 | $48.98 | +$1.92 |
| Will the Republican Party win the WI-05 House seat? · Yes | 0.957 | 0.975 | $47.44 | +$0.85 |
| Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.760 | $37.64 | −$7.92 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the KY-05 House seat? · No | 0.940 | 0.987 | $4.44 | +$0.21 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.13at 0.943Will Elina Svitolina win the 2026 Women’s French Open?
- +$1.46at 0.965Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?
- +$1.40at 0.967Will Dricus Du Plessis be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
- +$1.08at 0.981Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
- +$1.05at 0.973Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $150B by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-15 12:07 | Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? | BUY | 0.9299999745 | $22.24 |