0x61B0C9A7CB8Ee62f51508C97F3016dD5f964ea7F-1749372211998
0x61b0c9a7cb8ee62f51508c97f3016dd5f964ea7f
- Realised P&L
- $-0.34
- Volume
- $2.4k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $4.32
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)45.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration71.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.105 | $3.09 | −$6.91 |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.566 | 0.139 | $1.23 | −$3.77 |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.96 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$34.80at 0.365Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?
- +$18.38at 0.352Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
- +$12.58at 0.600Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026?
- +$7.89at 0.102Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?
- +$0.68at 0.903Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 18:07 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6499999927 | $8.96 |
| 09-14 03:57 | Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $8.33 |
| 09-11 16:10 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5661297907 | $5.00 |
| 09-11 16:10 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $5.00 |
| 09-11 16:07 | Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1799999986 | $10.00 |
| 09-11 15:33 | Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999966 | $10.00 |
| 09-05 04:50 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $16.34 |
| 09-05 03:16 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1835872958 | $20.00 |
| 09-03 12:48 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026? | SELL | 0.88 | $5.30 |
| 09-03 12:48 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.972 | $32.94 |
| 09-03 02:14 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.8299998589 | $5.00 |
| 09-01 17:30 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $5.55 |
| 08-29 21:06 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.5899999894 | $20.00 |
| 08-07 19:17 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.0303303874 | $3.67 |
| 08-06 16:03 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.3649999573 | $5.00 |