0x61A6b23c59Dc8646F42662A206A717ba28c8dE5F-1781352645662
0x61a6b23c59dc8646f42662a206a717ba28c8de5f
- Realised P&L
- $-235.93
- Volume
- $20.5k
- Markets traded
- 88
- Open portfolio
- $20.92
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded88
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)16.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration66.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.023 | $13.93 | −$5.59 |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? · Yes | 0.052 | 0.036 | $6.99 | −$3.11 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.17at 0.104US recession by end of 2026?
- +$6.05at 0.276Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
- +$5.82at 0.060Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
- +$5.24at 0.120Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
- +$5.01at 0.080Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-10 17:30 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.08 | $16.04 |
| 08-10 17:30 | US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | SELL | 0.041 | $0.21 |
| 08-10 17:30 | OKX IPO in 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $0.58 |
| 08-10 17:30 | Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.023 | $0.26 |
| 08-10 17:30 | Major CEX insolvent in 2026? | SELL | 0.031 | $0.87 |
| 08-10 17:30 | Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.12 | $1.44 |
| 08-10 17:30 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1 | $1.50 |
| 08-10 17:30 | Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.08 | $1.56 |
| 08-10 17:30 | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.08 | $2.30 |
| 08-10 17:30 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $6.38 |
| 08-10 17:30 | OpenAI IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.16 | $6.81 |
| 08-10 17:30 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.2 | $6.88 |
| 08-10 17:30 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | SELL | 0.044 | $7.15 |
| 08-10 17:30 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.04 | $7.27 |
| 08-10 17:30 | Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? | SELL | 0.214282044 | $7.51 |