Seman31
0x619832ff2c78786523b25394e20dcdee6f5e90fe
- Realised P&L
- $-42.28
- Volume
- $1.7k
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $57.68
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)83.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.70at 0.730Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
- +$1.36at 0.880Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026?
- +$1.32at 0.696Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?
- +$1.24at 0.890S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026?
- +$0.45at 0.930Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-09 15:25 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1584717215 | $3.00 |
| 07-02 06:00 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999903 | $10.00 |
| 07-02 06:00 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0569999894 | $5.00 |
| 06-11 19:05 | Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | BUY | 0.6899999425 | $3.00 |
| 06-01 16:33 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $10.00 |
| 06-01 16:32 | Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30? | SELL | 0.973 | $10.46 |
| 05-07 10:44 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.4 | $10.00 |
| 04-15 08:19 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299999812 | $10.00 |
| 04-09 09:31 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | BUY | 0.2299999869 | $10.00 |
| 04-09 09:31 | Trump out as President before GTA VI? | SELL | 0.47 | $9.79 |
| 03-17 13:51 | Netanyahu out by March 31? | BUY | 0.0370000003 | $5.00 |
| 03-17 13:48 | Trump out as President before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.4799999827 | $10.00 |
| 03-17 13:46 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0190000001 | $10.00 |
| 03-17 13:44 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.189999988 | $10.00 |
| 03-17 13:44 | S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8899999947 | $10.00 |