longer4longer
0x618c6ad4380f9d216a70020480fd8a1ff01a0f4e
- Realised P&L
- $-2.4k
- Volume
- $488.6k
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $13.28
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration93.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.004 | $13.28 | −$18.48 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? · No | 0.063 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$749.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$508.89at 0.007Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$32.79at 0.610Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
- +$-31.68at 0.049Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration in 2025?
- +$-277.86at 0.015Was Kanye hacked?
- +$-927.26at 0.058Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-06 14:56 | Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.0143272904 | $989.33 |
| 06-06 14:56 | Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.0089866108 | $406.50 |
| 06-05 00:31 | Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.007 | $300.00 |
| 06-05 00:30 | Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.007 | $500.00 |
| 03-31 22:20 | Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0054534643 | $7.36 |
| 11-13 15:19 | Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration in 2025? | SELL | 0.0181350102 | $18.32 |
| 11-09 19:29 | Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration in 2025? | BUY | 0.0494940556 | $50.00 |
| 08-28 21:02 | Was Kanye hacked? | SELL | 0.0066755937 | $313.68 |
| 08-26 15:41 | Was Kanye hacked? | BUY | 0.0149331033 | $750.00 |
| 03-11 11:52 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? | SELL | 0.0289684052 | $482.75 |
| 03-11 11:51 | No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? | SELL | 0.0368971982 | $441.64 |
| 03-11 11:38 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? | SELL | 0.0306727794 | $511.15 |
| 03-11 11:37 | No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? | SELL | 0.0336726238 | $806.08 |
| 03-03 21:50 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.0576411 | $1.9k |
| 03-03 21:48 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | SELL | 0.63 | $1.0k |