Long-Island-Capital
0x617a80402d374a6b1ed17279ac32be36eba7b4f1
- Realised P&L
- $-2.2k
- Volume
- $574.5k
- Markets traded
- 1,363
- Open portfolio
- $5.29
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,363
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration47.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)16.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.658 | 0.745 | $2.80 | +$0.33 |
| Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026? · No | 0.332 | 0.255 | $0.96 | −$0.29 |
| Will Berry Vrbanovic win the 2026 Kitchener mayoral election? · Yes | 0.000 | 0.925 | $0.93 | +$0.93 |
| Will Arthur Jarvis win the 2027 Cross River State gubernatorial election? · Yes | 0.000 | 0.150 | $0.60 | +$0.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$320.00at 0.360No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
- +$172.30at 0.126Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
- +$146.76at 0.332Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
- +$71.53at 0.977Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
- +$66.18at 0.030Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 2 above $190?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-09 02:32 | GPT-7 released by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.23 | $23.00 |
| 09-08 23:12 | GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.5 | $36.37 |
| 09-08 22:41 | GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.51 | $5.10 |
| 09-08 22:11 | GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.55 | $9.50 |
| 09-04 22:18 | Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.63 | $7.23 |
| 09-02 12:30 | Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.64 | $10.73 |
| 09-02 00:21 | Will Sílvia Cristina win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election? | SELL | 0.57 | $19.73 |
| 09-01 23:51 | Will Sílvia Cristina win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election? | SELL | 0.48 | $40.99 |
| 08-31 18:20 | Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Roraima? | SELL | 0.013 | $0.19 |
| 08-31 13:37 | Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.32 | $6.40 |
| 08-31 11:13 | Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.62 | $4.96 |
| 08-31 02:51 | Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.55 | $11.00 |
| 08-30 15:40 | Will Sílvia Cristina win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election? | SELL | 0.32 | $4.48 |
| 08-30 06:28 | Will Sílvia Cristina win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election? | SELL | 0.36 | $5.04 |
| 08-30 00:42 | Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.21 | $4.20 |