PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

MarcusH-03

0x6163a9f722f709677a6464f582b45637c8864373

Realised P&L
$20.76
Volume
$2.7k
Markets traded
92
Open portfolio
$94.94

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded92
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration52.1% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration42.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? · Yes0.7401.000$40.52+$10.52
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? · No0.7900.805$20.38+$0.38
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? · Yes0.6000.645$16.13+$1.13
Will Democrats win the Iowa Governor election and Republicans win the Iowa Senate election? · Yes0.4670.425$7.28−$0.72
Will Democrats win the Texas Senate seat, and Republicans win Kansas and Nebraska? · Yes0.1900.190$4.00+$0.00
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? · Yes0.3590.474$3.97+$0.97
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Nebraska Senate election by 3%-6%? · Yes0.1500.200$2.67+$0.67
Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes? · Yes0.5500.000$0.00−$5.00
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance · France0.5600.000$0.00−$8.00
Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 20–25%? · Yes0.2370.000$0.00−$2.00
Will Count Binface win 30–40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? · Yes0.0590.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0540.000$0.00−$6.60
Will SPD win the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election by a margin of 0-2%? · Yes0.3600.000$0.00−$3.00
Australia vs. Egypt: Team to Advance · Australia0.4900.000$0.00−$5.00
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.1400.000$0.00−$3.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 23:09Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Hampshire Senate election by 6%-9%?SELL0.22$3.30
11-01 20:19Will Democrats win the Texas Senate seat, and Republicans win Kansas and Nebraska?BUY0.1899999962$4.00
11-01 19:44Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?SELL0.73$15.90
10-27 22:04Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?BUY0.3589999983$3.00
10-19 14:53Will Democrats sweep the Maine Senate and Governor elections?SELL0.53$4.49
10-19 14:17Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?BUY0.6$15.00
10-18 17:24Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?BUY0.7899999905$20.00
10-18 13:29Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?BUY0.6699999839$10.00
10-17 10:51Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?SELL0.664$19.85
10-09 13:42Will Republicans sweep the Kansas Senate and Governor elections?SELL0.47$5.42
10-07 20:12Will Peter Newman finish third in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?SELL0.53$4.41
10-06 22:04Will Peter Newman finish third in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?BUY0.4799999616$4.00
10-05 14:07Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?SELL0.28$7.72
10-05 13:55Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?BUY0.2899999989$8.00
10-04 20:46Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?SELL0.28$2.95