MarcusH-03
0x6163a9f722f709677a6464f582b45637c8864373
- Realised P&L
- $20.76
- Volume
- $2.7k
- Markets traded
- 92
- Open portfolio
- $94.94
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded92
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration52.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$49.89at 0.279Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
- +$10.05at 0.447Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?
- +$8.05at 0.557Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?
- +$7.79at 0.565Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5
- +$7.61at 0.118Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 23:09 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Hampshire Senate election by 6%-9%? | SELL | 0.22 | $3.30 |
| 11-01 20:19 | Will Democrats win the Texas Senate seat, and Republicans win Kansas and Nebraska? | BUY | 0.1899999962 | $4.00 |
| 11-01 19:44 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.73 | $15.90 |
| 10-27 22:04 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? | BUY | 0.3589999983 | $3.00 |
| 10-19 14:53 | Will Democrats sweep the Maine Senate and Governor elections? | SELL | 0.53 | $4.49 |
| 10-19 14:17 | Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | BUY | 0.6 | $15.00 |
| 10-18 17:24 | Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999905 | $20.00 |
| 10-18 13:29 | Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad? | BUY | 0.6699999839 | $10.00 |
| 10-17 10:51 | Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? | SELL | 0.664 | $19.85 |
| 10-09 13:42 | Will Republicans sweep the Kansas Senate and Governor elections? | SELL | 0.47 | $5.42 |
| 10-07 20:12 | Will Peter Newman finish third in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? | SELL | 0.53 | $4.41 |
| 10-06 22:04 | Will Peter Newman finish third in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? | BUY | 0.4799999616 | $4.00 |
| 10-05 14:07 | Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.28 | $7.72 |
| 10-05 13:55 | Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2899999989 | $8.00 |
| 10-04 20:46 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? | SELL | 0.28 | $2.95 |