0x600a5936b199750583b4cb354c5341c794d4bd08
- Realised P&L
- not known
- Volume
- not known
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $546.20
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- Not knownEdge per dollar—
- No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte? · No | 0.625 | 0.305 | $239.41 | −$251.34 |
| Hailee Steinfeld as Kate Bishop? · Yes | 0.689 | 0.725 | $105.22 | +$5.22 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.785 | $96.70 | +$17.86 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026? · Yes | 0.332 | 0.295 | $68.58 | −$8.60 |
| Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.705 | $36.29 | +$1.29 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$44.40at 0.490Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026?
- +$16.62at 0.653Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Japan this month?
- +$14.77at 0.746Will a 6.0+ earthquake occur in the Philippines by August 31?
- +$8.47at 0.802Next GPT Sol (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?
- +$5.02at 0.590Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 19:07 | Next Claude Haiku (5.6+) released by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.226191518 | $13.44 |
| 10-15 12:02 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.64 | $78.84 |
| 10-13 07:51 | Next Claude Haiku (5.6+) released by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3197115354 | $19.00 |
| 10-12 11:14 | Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6799999899 | $35.00 |
| 10-01 07:48 | Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.48 | $41.79 |
| 09-29 01:50 | Next GPT Sol (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7952736451 | $34.00 |
| 09-28 10:49 | Hailee Steinfeld as Kate Bishop? | BUY | 0.6890380604 | $100.00 |
| 09-28 10:47 | Will Clavicular visit Japan in 2026? | SELL | 0.29 | $40.39 |
| 09-20 05:24 | Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Japan this month? | BUY | 0.6416532895 | $30.75 |
| 09-17 04:24 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23? | SELL | 0.13 | $32.24 |
| 09-17 03:39 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23? | BUY | 0.1318262859 | $32.69 |
| 09-14 16:21 | Will Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? | BUY | 0.8499999957 | $20.00 |
| 09-14 16:20 | Will United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? | SELL | 0.0593173318 | $21.25 |
| 09-13 18:00 | China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | SELL | 0.71 | $60.70 |
| 09-10 17:33 | Will Clavicular visit Japan in 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999986 | $39.00 |