0x5f51636614f5761dd147629cf5741eb000d974f2
0x5f51636614f5761dd147629cf5741eb000d974f2
- Realised P&L
- $307.89
- Volume
- $7.7k
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $131.32
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample26 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)57.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.590 | 1.000 | $84.75 | +$34.75 |
| Will Madrid host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.385 | $19.74 | −$0.26 |
| Will any Moroccan city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.217 | $12.79 | +$2.79 |
| Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.045 | $7.50 | −$12.50 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.425 | $6.54 | −$1.46 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$124.49at 0.613Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?
- +$73.29at 0.628Will France win on 2026-07-09?
- +$64.39at 0.166Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$53.26at 0.089Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$43.12at 0.112Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 20:33 | Will Venezia FC vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.02 |
| 09-11 17:40 | Will Venezia FC vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw? | BUY | 0.2799999978 | $5.00 |
| 09-01 11:49 | Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? | BUY | 0.3435633329 | $20.00 |
| 08-28 17:29 | Will AC Milan win on 2026-08-28? | BUY | 0.659999994 | $35.00 |
| 08-18 01:26 | Will any Moroccan city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1699999871 | $10.00 |
| 08-18 01:26 | Will Madrid host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.3899999902 | $20.00 |
| 07-21 20:01 | Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.1199999952 | $20.00 |
| 07-15 19:17 | England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5349999911 | $25.00 |
| 07-12 11:36 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.2 | $30.24 |
| 07-12 11:36 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.387 | $120.18 |
| 07-12 11:36 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.216 | $99.08 |
| 07-12 11:36 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.189 | $109.88 |
| 07-11 20:21 | Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.6824999944 | $25.00 |
| 07-11 20:21 | Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Score | BUY | 0.6299999922 | $25.00 |
| 07-10 10:35 | Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | BUY | 0.5974999997 | $191.96 |